Sustainable Fisheries in Lake Turkana: Using Systems Thinking Approach

Lake Turkana, Africa’s fourth-largest lake, holds significant potential for supporting the livelihoods of thousands in northern Kenya. However, over the years, its fisheries sector has faced a myriad of challenges ranging from environmental degradation to social and economic marginalization. Our consultancy recently embarked on a project, ‘Sustainably Unlocking the Economic Potential of Lake Turkana’ to address these challenges, applying systems thinking as a tool to create sustainable, long-term solutions for Lake Turkana's fisheries.

In this post, we explore how systems thinking has enabled us to assess the complexity of issues surrounding fisheries in Lake Turkana and identify interventions to address these challenges, while promoting sustainable economic development.

What is Systems Thinking, and Why is it Important?

At its core, systems thinking is a holistic approach that helps understand the interconnected elements within a system and how they influence one another. Unlike linear problem-solving, systems thinking views challenges as a network of interacting components. In the case of Lake Turkana, it allows us to map out the complex relationships between environmental conditions, community needs, governance structures, and economic activities.

Applying systems thinking to Lake Turkana’s fisheries involved identifying not just the immediate systems failures, like post-harvest losses, but the root causes of these issues - such as the lack of cold storage facilities and poor fish handling practices. By understanding these interdependencies, we could design interventions that address both the symptoms and the underlying causes of the sector’s challenges.

Key Challenges Facing Lake Turkana's Fisheries

Lake Turkana being a critical lifeline for many communities, faces substantial obstacles that hinder the growth of the local fisheries sector. Some of the most pressing challenges include:

Post-harvest losses due to inadequate preservation methods, such as drying fish on the ground, leading to contamination and lower market value. Submerged cold storage facilities and drying racks due to the expansion of the lake.
Lack of access to finance, which prevents fisherfolk from investing in better equipment or expanding their businesses.
Environmental factors, including high salinity levels and fluctuating water levels caused by the expansion of the lake.
Governance issues, such as weak Beach Management Units (BMUs) and insufficient regulation to prevent illegal fishing practices.

These issues are exacerbated by a lack of skills and knowledge in the local communities regarding fisheries value chain and deep-water fishing. Moreover, social-cultural barriers, including mistrust between local stakeholders and outsiders, complicate collaboration efforts that could lead to sustainable solutions.

The Lake Expansion at Kalokol and Fish transportation via bodaboda

Root Cause Analysis: Addressing Core Issues in Lake Turkana’s Fisheries through the Four Levels of Thinking

When tackling complex challenges, it’s natural to focus on the immediate, visible symptoms of a problem. In the case of Lake Turkana fisheries, this might mean addressing issues such as poor fish quality or the lack of infrastructure. However, these are just the “tip of the iceberg”—isolated events that, if addressed alone, would not fully resolve the underlying issues that cause them. To achieve sustainable change, it’s essential to dig deeper and address the root causes of the system failures. The Four Levels of Thinking Model by Maani and Cavana offers a structured way to do this, guiding us through a system's layers of causality-from visible events down to mental models that shape the entire ecosystem.

The Iceberg Model (Northwest Earth Institute, 2017)

The Lake Turkana fisheries sector faces challenges at multiple levels. On the surface, issues like poor fish quality, lack of cold storage, inadequate infrastructure, and unsustainable development programs are evident. However, these problems stem from deeper, recurring patterns such as poor fish handling practices, reliance on unsuitable fishing gear, and policies that focus on quick fixes rather than long-term solutions.

These patterns, in turn, are shaped by broader structures, including weak governance of Beach Management Units (BMUs), limited access to finance, inadequate training, and complex licensing processes. At the core of it all are deeply ingrained mental models - beliefs and perceptions that shape behaviors within the sector. Mistrust of financial service providers, dependence on donor support, and limited awareness of economic opportunities in fisheries discourage investment and innovation. Tackling these interconnected challenges requires a holistic approach that addresses both surface-level issues and the underlying structures that sustain them.

By addressing these four levels from events down to mental models, stakeholders can develop strategies that not only resolve immediate issues but also foster long-term transformation in Lake Turkana’s fisheries sector. This structured approach lays the foundation for an industry that’s resilient, community-centered, and economically viable.

Developing Potential Interventions: Using Systems Thinking

Using a systems-thinking approach, we sought to understand the broader economic challenges faced by fisherfolk in Lake Turkana, with the goal of identifying foundational barriers that hinder economic independence and growth. Our work involved engaging and analyzing key stakeholders within the Lake Turkana Fisheries ecosystem, including private sector players such as fisherfolk, Beach Management Units (BMUs), traders, and the few existing cold storage providers and processors who form the backbone of the supply chain. Additionally, we worked with government bodies, fisheries associations, financial service providers (FSPs), and researchers to enhance fisheries market access and identify strategic interventions.

Our analysis incorporated microeconomic aspects such as the dynamics of dry and fresh fish markets, demand and supply parameters including fish quantity, quality, and branding and the economic trade-offs between key obstacles (e.g. post-harvest losses, lack of fresh water) and potential solutions (e.g. improved drying methods, market linkages, transportation, and access to fresh water for the cold chain). By carefully assessing these constraints, we aimed to pinpoint leverage points where targeted interventions could generate the most impact while also considering different scenarios and risks.

To visually map out the obstacles and their root causes, we began with a manual systems mapping approach. For instance, post-harvest losses emerged as a critical challenge, which we traced back to a number of causes including, lack of drying and cold storage facilities and poor fish handling practices issues exacerbated by lake expansion and limited access to fresh water. By illustrating these relationships, we identified priority areas for intervention.

We then transitioned our manual mapping into Kumu, a digital mapping tool that allowed us to dynamically visualize relationships and interdependencies within the system. This enabled us to identify high-impact leverage points, including knowledge of fisheries market systems (value chain), access to credit and finance, branding and marketing of Lake Turkana fish, enterprise development, public-private partnerships, strengthening institutional frameworks, and infrastructure development. By leveraging Kumu, we ensured our proposed interventions were data-driven, adaptable, and responsive to evolving challenges within the fisheries sector.

Below shows an extraction of one of the main elements - post harvest losses observed from the main Kumu map.

An extracted section of the Kumu map on Challenges and Influences on PHL

The figure above illustrates that insufficient infrastructure significantly contributes to increased post-harvest losses. This issue arises from the area's remote location, which poses challenges to developing necessary infrastructure. Further exacerbated by inadequate funding for the fisheries sector in the region.

On the right side, it becomes clear that limited access to cold storage and drying equipment amplifies post-harvest losses, alongside poor fish handling practices (sanitation). The interconnected nature of these factors highlights how each element impacts the others within this system.

Social and Economic Impact on Private Sector Players: Proposed Leverage Points for Change

By addressing key leverage points, we aim to create sustainable improvements that will be observed throughout the region. Below are the proposed interventions that we hope will drive change in the coming years:

Cooperatives and Grouping of Value Chain Actors
Forming cooperatives among fisherfolk, traders, and processors could improve access to resources, strengthen bargaining power, and enhance market connections. By pooling resources, these collectives can invest in infrastructure such as cold storage units, which will help reduce post-harvest losses. Organized groups also gain better access to financing, as lenders may prefer to work with better structured entities. Groups could also negotiate better prices and contracts. This approach could foster entrepreneurship and create a more competitive value chain.
Promoting Marketing, Branding and Fish Handling Education
Improving fish handling practices and branding Lake Turkana’s fish can boost their reputation in both local and international markets. A strong branding strategy can highlight the unique qualities of Lake Turkana fish, increasing consumer demand and attracting buyers and investors alike. Training stakeholders in hygiene and proper storage techniques will not only reduce spoilage but also help meet market standards.
Strengthening Coordination and Quality Assurance Across the Value Chain
Enhancing collaboration between government bodies, private sector players, and development partners is essential to creating a cohesive and efficient value chain. Streamlining processes like licensing and market linkages will ensure that the fisheries sector in Lake Turkana can meet market demand and remain competitive, both locally and internationally.
Infrastructure Support
Infrastructure development is crucial to improving market access in the remote Lake Turkana region. Better roads, cold storage facilities, and transportation networks will reduce isolation and make it easier to bring fish to markets. These improvements will not only reduce post-harvest losses but also encourage private investment and create opportunities for economic growth in other sectors.
Developing Business Cases or Proofs of Concept
Demonstrating the viability of fisheries-related ventures through well-developed business cases can attract investment into the region. These might include value-added processing or the establishment of sustainable cold storage facilities. Clear evidence of profitability will encourage financial institutions and development partners to invest, while local entrepreneurs will gain a better understanding of how to structure their ventures for success.
Mindset Change for a Market-Driven Approach
Shifting the mindset of fisherfolk and traders from donor dependency to a business-oriented approach is vital for long-term growth. Through education on productivity, market demands, and financial management and literacy, communities will adopt a more entrepreneurial mindset, paving the way for sustainable economic development.
Improved Water Supply Systems
Given challenges in accessing fresh water due to the desert like ecosystem, salinity of lake water and high cost of desalination and digging boreholes, stakeholders should aim to design reliable, cost-effective and sustainable clean water supply systems.
Addressing Insecurity in Fish Corridors
Ensuring secure trade routes through community-led peacebuilding efforts and collaboration with local authorities will reduce disruptions in fish transportation. This will improve market access, attract investment, and create a more stable environment for economic activities.
New Product Development through Research and Development (R&D)
Investing in R&D will open new possibilities for product diversification, such as developing smoked or dried fish with longer shelf lives. This will help Lake Turkana’s fisheries reach more distant markets, reduce post-harvest losses, and create new revenue streams, making the sector more resilient and innovative.

Applying Systems Thinking Across Africa

The lessons learned from Lake Turkana can be applied to other regions across Africa. By using systems thinking, stakeholders can design interventions that address the root causes of economic and environmental issues, rather than just treating the symptoms. This approach promotes sustainable development by focusing on what is both logically desirable and politically feasible.

For example, strengthening local communities through improved financial and market access ensures that fisheries support livelihoods sustainably, complementing rather than replacing existing income sources like pastoralism and small-scale agriculture. Systems thinking encourages collaboration between local governments, international organizations, and private enterprises, which is essential for creating long-lasting change. Furthermore, it emphasizes the importance of continuous monitoring and adaptation, recognizing that sustainable development is an ongoing process.